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EC SD | Agree that any chart that compares something to ten year treasury rates is flawed, given the massive manipulation from the Fed for the last 10 plus years.
In any case, the idea here is to compare the return of stocks over the next ten years (annualized) vs buying and holding a 10 year treasury to expiration from here. It is pure folly in my opinion, as no one can predict a ten year future! If you don't hold that treasury to expiration, you can lose a lot on price changes, so it is only a zero-risk asset if you hold it to maturity. Lots of financial analysts/advisors were saying to sell equities and buy long bonds in 2024, yet here we are with big losses (on a "zero risk" asset) for most everyone that followed that advice. Meanwhile equities are having nearly the best year ever in 2024... Who missed this rally? The experts, I guess... | |
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Equity risk premium vs soybeans
