| Thud - 4/2/2025 20:22
The consensus I’ve seen is late 2026 or early 2027 for the invasion…two major issues , the first one been sea conditions. Apparently sea state in the straights are highly variable and there is only a few weeks/months year where the sea would be calm enough to reliably permit a large scale amphibious landing. The second issue is China doesn’t have all the military hardware, like sufficient transport/assault in place to all but guarantee success. The weather window is predictable and they are pumping put hardware at amazing rates…when both conditions are met they will make their move. Personally ,if Taiwan can’t defeat the initial air/missile attacks they stand no chance up stopping the amphibious assault..BUT if they can hold back the Chinese airforce they may be able to sink the Chinese invasion fleet in the straight.. to do that they will need help from their allies. One things Taiwan has going for it is US surveillance….any Chinese invasion buildup will be noticed months ahead of time, giving Taiwan a chance to preposition assets,evacuate areas etc and allied forces ( think submarines , aircraft, carrier groups etc) to form defensive perimeters around the island. Good information, but your very last suggestion I will disagree with, as the Chinese have been practicing war drills many times, well within eyesight from shore, and Taiwan (nor any allies)has done nothing to stop these drills. One of these days, it won’t be a drill, it will be the invasion, and catch them completely Ill prepared to be at their battle stations ahead of time.
Edited by Boone & Crockett 4/2/2025 20:32
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My very real concern is China invading Taiwan, and the
