So there's some signs not as bad as I expected but given all the red ink in the industry.. that's not saying much.

I refer to a Crop Year Sept 1st to Aug 31st in order to match the Grain Year.

So since Sept 1st 2020 vs a year ago for the same time period..

Ethanol production is down 7.5% with this week's 935 k bbls/day down 12.1% vs a year ago's 1,062 k bbls/day
Ethanol blended is down 10.4% with this week's 719 k bbls/day (Holiday reduced) down 10.2% vs 801 k bbls/day last year
Implied usage (other than blended.. Exports, Sanitizer etc) is down 11.6% while actual reported (lags) is down 13.6%
Thus TOTAL Blended plus unexplained usage is down 10.6% vs a year ago
Ethanol stocks at 23.284 myn bbls are up vs year ago's 22.462 myn bbls.
Gasoline supplied (assumed INCluding Ethanol) is down 9.4%
Therefore my (revised as of last week to assume ethanol in Gas supplied) blend rate of 10.7% for the week.. 10.98% year to date.. is actually UP.. more ethanol blending by 0.9% but down this week's 10.7% vs year ago's 10.92%

Couple of points..

1) Ethanol grind and Gasoline demand both running.. basically 90% of a year ago.

2) Year ago Pre Covid numbers.. We were smake dab in the middle of ethanols greatest grind where we averaged over 1 myn bbls/day from 10/25/19's 1,004 k bbls/day peaking on 1/10/20's 1,095 k bbls/day through 3/20/20's 1,005 k bbls/ day..  22 week run.  Then we fell off a cliff falling all the way to 537 k bbls /day the week of 4/24/20 as the Lock down's hit and gasoline usage plummeted from 9,696 k bbls/ day on 3/13/20 to 5,065 k bbls/day on 4/3/20.  We have slowly been climbing our way back out of that ditch.. peaking at 990 k bbls/day on 11/20/20

3) As Corn has rallied ethanol margins stink.. this week plants announced more reduced grinds and a plant in Cedar Rapids Iowa is going to go idle by the end of January.

4) Since Sept 1st the ethanol grind reduction has amounted to 140 myn bushels of lost Corn Demand.. we are running.. this week down 12.8 myn bushels vs a year ago.  If/when.. we reach the point that we exceed the ditch of last year.. this deficit may/can/will be reduced.. unless we repeat the lockdowns experienced last year.. ???  Your guess as good as mine.

5) Given the push for electric vehicles etc.. it's doubtful that the US Gasoline market will ever be as large as we were

6) However does ethanol continue to gain market share?  Can we get to 15% of an expected reduced market?

So lots of questions and lots of uncertainty in the ethanol industry right now.  It's not pretty and the industry will probably need Government assistance to heal.

In the Octane market which ethanol competes very well with.. Carcinogenic BTX alternatives have come off bottom and all Octane sources are moving higher.. as is Crude Oil due to impacts from OPEC reducing.. actually holding supply from the market.  So that is a positive.. (as I alluded to up above.). If/When Crude Oil takes off..??  or is snuffed out by EV's..??  will have a dramatic impact on Ethanol.. probably will see bout's of both continue..  Crude oil in a range of $6.50 (actually -$48 whatever) last April to $147 seen before (causing) the Great Recession in July of 2008.  Somewhere in between that.. LOL.  Although nothing would surprise me to come along and expand that range.

I don't think ethanol is going away.. and we broke a string of 10 weeks adding to stocks.. so with margins in the red.. and cutbacks coming.. while demand slowly recovers.. we could/should reach an equilibrium here some time soon.. then get dragged along with the next trend.. up or down.

at least it's not boring..

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