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SW Ohio | History doesn't repeat but it rhymes, right?
Fundamentally, there isn't a good reason for the market to tank, agreed? US stocks tight, world stocks tight. No major relief from that with South Americas crop. Ours is 9 months away with a drought monitor looking threatening. Massive monetary manipulation going on since last year by the Fed. Massive helicopter money being dropped by Uncle Sam into the private sector (embarassing how much we farmers got). Demand and yield change in future reports.
What can trump all the above? A grain embargo, it has happened before. It happened after the golden age of ag (1970$). It was against a Russia then and maybe China now. Maybe retaliation for the WuhanFlue? Of course this is all wild speculation.
Sitting on 30% of old crop cab and completely unsold on new crop. In 08 and 12 I was more nervous than when crops were cheap. I feel that way today. Some of you will say, then sell the crap and forget it. I hear you, really. But for the reasons above and what I sold into fall was wrong and prob wrong today. (Dumping 3.9futures and 40 over basis felt so right then).
$ell the futures and buy the call (horribly expensive versus puts) or buy puts and let futures ride. Conflicted is my stance and thats a horrible place to be in marketing. A no mans land. Sold otm calls all the way up this year. The market ran over them, the last one was at 5.20 that I sold for .23. Does a guy keep on that route.
Been hauling local for a small positive basis. I'm considering just spot selling the rest as I haul it. May park the 1000 bu hopper and haul with the single axle straight truck. Just so a guy doesn't sell too much in one day. There are many fellas around that sold 3.7 to 4 corn and 9.5 beans cause it felt like a Godsend. Shred_ded!
Edited by RCR 1/15/2021 15:36
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Garden farmer marketing journal entry
