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S Illinois | There technically was a crop failure in 2019. It wasn't a yield one per say but we had a production decline of almost 900mb y-o-y. It took USDA until the Aug. 2019 WASDE to pick up on that bulk of the decline. One could say they should have had a bigger adjustment in the July report, but with the fluid situation of PP and planting that occurs in July it would have been difficult to change that far that fast. USDA had large production cuts in the July 2019 report and made large cuts again in Aug. 2019.
Then a return of China to pre trade war soybean export levels occurred this summer into fall. Now one could have argued that as soon as phase 1 was announced USDA could have upped demand, but after 2 years of fits and starts with regards to China trade announcements and no published level of actual import amounts it would have been tough to pinpoint exactly. So as China bought, USDA upped the amount. | |
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How do we go from a Soybean carryout of 955 mb in Nov 2018 to 140 mb or less today
