|
NW IL | Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the USDA bushels estimating thing mostly started after the wheat fiasco in the early 80's to try and figure out Soviet/global levels??
And then since then the focus has drifted mostly to domestic production and less focus on overseas supplies?
Perhaps part of the problem is that they are being judged for a job they were not originally created to do?
I also heard an Iowa weather scientist say at a conference that the years they have been off the largest on corn are often related to fall GDD, and night time temps that are different from the average during grain fill. It's a variable they don't track I guess.
Like a poster above, I'm impressed they get as close as they do - I'm usually way farther off on my own personal field yield estimates - and its unfortunate traders put so much value in their projections. | |
|
So to the ones that preach USDA
